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☆ 2 experts outline a looming scenario where the US economy ends up caught in a dreaded period of stagflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.

Persons: stagflation, —, Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America

☆ The US economy may end up caught in a dreaded period of stagflation. 2 experts outline the scenario, and how to keep your money safe
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Stock market today: Dow falls 375 points as traders brace for new inflation data after weak GDP
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Max Adams | Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Commentators pointed out that the data was still mostly strong but inflation is problematic. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 375 points as the market took in weaker-than-expected economic data. Savings rates are falling as sticky inflation puts greater pressure on the consumer," LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said.

Persons: —, Stocks, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Reserve, Barclays, Bank of America, PCE, Financial, Treasury, Meta, Microsoft, Google

☆ GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, well below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate. Net exports subtracted 0.86 percentage point from the growth rate while consumer spending contributed 1.68 percentage points. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose at a 3.7% rate, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Income adjusted for taxes and inflation rose 1.1% for the period, down from 2%. Services spending increased 4%, its highest quarterly level since Q3 of 2021.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Gross, department's, Analysis, Commerce Department, Federal, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, LPL, Labor Department

☆ Cooling inflation data means the Fed is in position to cut rate in June, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Cooling inflation data means the Fed is in position to cut rate in June, LPL's chief economist said. The PCE index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, decelerated to a 0.3% monthly increase, down from 0.5% in January. Services spending has slowed which indicates that growth in consumer spending will ease in the coming months, Jeffrey Roach said. AdvertisementThe latest inflation data has rolled in in line with expectations, and it's good news for those waiting on rate cuts. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index — which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — decelerated to a 0.3% monthly increase, down from 0.5% in January.

Persons: LPL's, Jeffrey Roach, — Organizations: Services, Service, Business

☆ S&P 500 futures rise slightly in overnight trading, Nvidia shares jump: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures edged up in overnight trading Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Nvidia shares as the chip giant posted record revenue and issued upbeat guidance. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1%. Nvidia shares popped more than 8% in after-hours trading after the chip company said total revenue rose a whopping 265% from a year ago, driven by its booming artificial intelligence business. AI enthusiasm has powered the jaw-dropping rally in Nvidia, along with other Big Tech names, over the past year. "Investors should know that the path of disinflation will likely be choppy, creating volatility in the rates market," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

Persons: David Russell, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bears, Federal, LPL, Moderna, Builders, Live, Booking Holdings, Intuit Locations: U.S

Retail sales fell by 0.8% last month, far worse than expected, as consumers pulled back from their holiday spending and amid rising inflation and higher credit costs, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. While overall retail trade sales declined, nonstore retailers were up 6.4 percent from last year. And consumers continued to spend on eating out, with food services and drinking places up 6.3% from a year ago. In January, retail sales rose by 2.34% from a year ago, according to the NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor powered by credit card tracking firm Affinity Solutions, but sales were down by 0.16% from December’s strong performance. “Notably, consumers are feeling strained by higher prices at the grocery store and beyond,” Patel said.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, ”, Jonathan Silver, Piyush Patel, “, ” Patel, – Organizations: Census, Federal, LPL, CNBC Retail Monitor, Affinity Solutions, Affinity, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Consumers are happy, the stock market is near record highs, inflation is moderating and the labor market is defying all forecasts. Apparently, very little as the latest reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan confirmed on Friday. The final consumer sentiment survey for January posted a 13% increase to 79, almost a 10-point surge from December’s 69.7 reading, echoing earlier estimates. “This morning’s strong jobs report diminished the chances of the Fed cutting in March,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. This means businesses are in a good position despite the macro headwinds and uncertainty about growth expectations.”

Persons: “, ”, Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, –, David Royal, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, LPL

Permits were 1.9% more than the upwardly revised 1.47 million November number and at an annual level of 1.5 million. Housing starts fell 4.3% from the November annual rate of 1.53 million, a reading that was revised downward from the robust 1.56 million originally estimated. Both permits and starts were higher than a year ago, by 6.1% and 7.6%, respectively. The Best Cartoons on the Economy View All 178 Images“Falling mortgage rates should jump-start the demand for housing in the coming months,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders said its January survey found builder confidence surged as mortgage rates for the benchmark 30-year fixed rate loan dipped to 6.75%.

Persons: ”, Jeffrey Roach, Alicia Huey, Kelly Mangold Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban, Housing, LPL, National Association of Home Builders, ” Builders, Real Estate Consulting Locations: Birmingham , Alabama, U.S

Wholesale inflation fell by 0.1% in December, capping a year in which the rate of price increases dropped sharply, according to a report from the Labor Department released on Friday. The producer price index for all of 2023 came in at 1% compared to 6.4% in 2022. No indication of inflation at the wholesale level,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, posted on social media. A lot will depend on how the economy performs this year after putting in a strong performance in 2023. Wages are increasing and now running higher than the level of inflation, giving support to consumer spending.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, ”, Jeffrey Roach, ” “, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Ian Bremmer, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, ” Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal, LPL Financial, BCA Research, Fed, U.S, Global Affairs, Goldman, Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, JPMorgan Locations: Red, Iranian, Asia, U.S, Ukraine

The number of job openings fell sharply in October, to 8.7 million from a downwardly revised 9.35 million a month earlier, according to the Labor Department. The number released Tuesday was lower than economists had forecast and suggests that the labor market is slowing as the year comes to an end. “Job openings dropped to 8,733,000 in October, the lowest level since March 2021. Despite some volatile jumps/drops month-to-month, job openings have been on a downward trend since early 2022,” Daniel Zhao, lead economist and senior manager on Glassdoor’s economic research team, posted on social media. The Federal Reserve will be looking at the latest readings on the labor market as they come one week before officials meet to consider monetary policy.

Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, Jeffrey Roach, Joanie Bily, ” Bily, “, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, LPL, American Staffing Association, ” Nomura Securities, Hollywood, Government, Federal, Fed

☆ US third-quarter growth revised higher; corporate profits rise strongly
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ US economy grows 5.2% in third quarter; higher interest rates eroding momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The growth pace, which was the quickest in nearly two years, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth, instead of the 1.32 percentage points estimated last month. Higher wages contributed to the economy growing at a 1.5% rate last quarter, the fastest in a year, when measured from the income side. That suggested trade could be a drag on GDP growth this quarter after being a neutral factor in the April-June period.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Conrad DeQuadros, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Analysis, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Brean, BEA, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina

Consumers grew somewhat more optimistic about the future of the economy in November as expectations about inflation improved, but their sense of the current state of affairs worsened a bit. Still, two-thirds of consumers surveyed still expect a recession to be “somewhat” or “very likely” within the next 12 months. However, that is well above current inflation of 3.2% and forecasts from the Federal Reserve and mainstream economists. In the peak hour from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. EST, consumers spent $15.7 million a minute, according to online analytics firm Adobe. One thing that might make some consumers happy is that home prices continued to increase in September.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, ” Peterson, Jeffrey Roach, Craig J, Lazzara, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Conference, Federal Reserve, LPL, “, Adobe, MLS Locations: Detroit, San Diego

Toys, games and hobby gear are on track to be less expensive this holiday season for the first time since 2020, while sporting goods prices are down this holiday for the first time since 2018, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)showed. To be sure, prices overall are higher in 2023 despite slowed price growth, with October's consumer price index climbing to 3.2% year-over-year. The figure remained flat on a month-over-month basis, signaling some holiday item prices may be slow to come down. Despite a dip in sporting goods prices, they continue to pace above 2019 levels. Walmart WMT.N said prices of general merchandise - clothing, electronics, furniture - had declined by low to mid-single-digit percentages versus last year, enabling the retailer to cut prices this holiday season.

Persons: Theresa Forsberg, Jill Lizzo, Barbie, Walmart WMT.N, it's, ”, Christina Hennington, Vincent Alban, Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Jeffrey Roach, Macy's, Kevin Simpson, Simpson, Siddharth Cavale, Amina Niasse, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Walmart, Reuters Graphics Reuters, REUTERS, Associates, LPL, Dick's Sporting, Reuters, Wealth, Target, Home Depot, Wayback Machine, Thomson Locations: New Milford , Connecticut, New York's Harlem, Chicago , Illinois, U.S, New York

A child looks at toys in a Target store ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday and traditional Black Friday sales in Chicago, Illinois, U.S. November 21, 2023. Toys, games and hobby gear are on track to be less expensive this holiday season for the first time since 2020, while sporting goods prices are down this holiday for the first time since 2018, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)showed. Walmart WMT.N said prices of general merchandise - clothing, electronics, furniture - had declined by low to mid-single-digit percentages versus last year, enabling the retailer to cut prices this holiday season. Black Friday discounts are 30% to 50% at major retailers and could go deeper later in the season. "You're going to see margin compression and potentially lower sales," said Simpson, whose firm holds shares in Walmart and Home Depot.

Persons: Vincent Alban, Barbie, Walmart WMT.N, it's, ”, Christina Hennington, Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Jeffrey Roach, Kevin Simpson, Simpson, Siddharth Cavale, Amina Niasse, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Walmart, Associates, LPL, Wayback Machine, Dick's Sporting, Reuters, Wealth, Target, Home Depot, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Macy's, New York

☆ US stocks end streak of gains as Fed minutes indicate a restrictive policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks fell on Tuesday with the S&P 500 snapping a five-session winning streak. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting indicated restrictive policy remains on the table. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks fell on Tuesday with the S&P 500 snapping a five-session winning streak as the latest Fed minutes hinted at a hawkish-leaning central bank. One of this year's blowout tech stocks, the firm is facing high market expectations for a surge in profits and sales.

Persons: —, Powell, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Here's

☆ US existing home sales hit more than 13-year low; prices push higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The combination of high prices, high mortgage rates, and millions of homeowners unwilling to move, given they've locked in low rates, has frozen the market," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union in Vienna, Virginia. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales would slide to a rate of 3.90 million units. Existing home salesTIGHT SUPPLYThere were 1.15 million previously owned homes on the market last month, down 5.7% from a year ago. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 5%, making many reluctant to sell. At October's sales pace, it would take 3.6 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.3 months a year ago.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Robert Frick, Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, National Association of Realtors, Navy Federal Credit Union, homebuyers, Reuters, Treasury, realtors, U.S, Congress, Builders, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Vienna , Virginia, Northeast, West, Midwest, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ US housing starts rise moderately; tight supply supporting new construction
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 970,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Overall housing starts rose 1.9% to a rate of 1.372 million units in October. The number of housing under construction dipped 0.1% to a rate of 1.674 million units. The inventory of single-family housing under construction declined 0.6% to a rate of 669,000 units, the lowest level since May 2021. The stock of multi-family housing under construction edged up 0.1% to 987,000 units, not far from recent record highs.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Ben Ayers, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams, Thomas Ryan, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Zieminski Organizations: WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, LPL Financial, Commerce, Data, National Association of Home Builders, Nationwide, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Realtors, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Charlotte , North Carolina, homebuilding, Commerce Department's, Northeast, Columbus , Ohio, Dallas, West, South, Midwest

☆ The Fed is probably done hiking rates. Cuts are still far off
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve likely won’t raise interest rates again during its current tightening cycle, thanks to a cooldown in inflation. Interest rates are at a 22-year high after the Fed last March began its punishing pace of hikes in a bid to tame wayward inflation. Traders are now virtually certain that the Fed will hold rates steady at its December policy meeting and won’t hike again this cycle, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Of course, one month’s data doth not a trend make. Traders are anticipating rate cuts won’t start before next March, and see May as more likely, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: ”, Jeffrey Roach, Price, Sharp, Jerome Powell, Yung, Yu Ma, Joseph Brusuelas, Sephora, Parija Kavilanz, Read, Rishi Sunak, Hanna Ziady, “, ” Sunak, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, “, LPL, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Research, BMO Wealth Management, Traders, Investors, RSM US, CNN, National Statistics Locations: New York

Consumer prices held stable in October, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.7% a month ago as energy prices receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. “Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report,” RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on social media, noting that month-over-month inflation was flat at 3.2% and core inflation was up 0.2 percent to 4% over the same period. Although prices for a wide variety of goods and services have cooled this year, the current inflation rate is well above the 2% target set by the central bank. “Inflation expectations over the next 5 years dipped to 2.7%, slightly above the Fed’s long-run target of 2%. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the outlook.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Stocks, Matt Bush, Patrick De Haan, “, ”, Piyush Patel, Jeffrey Roach, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: of Labor Statistics, RSM, Federal, Treasury, Dow Industrial, Guggenheim Partners, CNBC, National Retail Foundation, NRF, Affinity Solutions, Wall Street, Travel, Gas, New York Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan’s, LPL, Investment, ” Goldman Locations: U.S

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

☆ Powell says Fed is 'not confident' it has done enough to bring inflation down
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

For the second time in recent weeks, a public speech from Powell was interrupted by climate protesters. Powell said that inflation is "well above" where the Fed would like to see it. "The Fed will be true to its mandate and hike further should inflation reaccelerate." "Monetary policy is generally working the way we think it should work" Powell said during a discussion following his speech. But Powell noted that the Fed is "attentive" that stronger than expected growth could undermine the fight against inflation and "warrant a response from monetary policy."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Stocks, Jeffrey Roach, Jacques Polak Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Dow Jones, Treasury, LPL, CME Group, Traders, Gross, Research Locations: Washington ,

☆ Consumers are still spending, but they're under pressure. These stocks still have room to run
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

Persistent inflationary pressures have led to depressed levels of consumer spending all year, according to Bank of America. Consumers are still spending — in fact, they're spending more than they are earning — as employment levels and hourly wage growth remain fairly strong . Some analysts see an opportunity to pick up shares of battered-down retail stocks. According to Barclay's Yih, spending levels "almost have to be worse" next year. LPL's Roach similarly expects consumers spending to hit a roadblock in the coming months.

Persons: bode, Neuberger Berman, Steve Eisman, Jeffrey Roach, Adrienne Yih, Yih, Randy Hare, Ross, Polly Wong, Belardi Wong, James Lewis, Huntington's Hare, Bartlett, Chris Kempczinski, Lewis, …, it's, Anthony Chukumba, Chukumba, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Kathleen Entwistle, Entwistle, LPL's Roach, Morgan Stanley's Entwistle, Barclay's Yih, Roach Organizations: Bank of America, CNBC, Consumers, Barclays, Ross, Huntington National Bank, Bartlett Wealth Management, Walmart, Retailers, Republic, Urban Outfitters, Eagle Outfitters, National, Capital, National Vision, Nike, Ross Stores, Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, Investments, Citizens JMP Securities, Delta Air Lines, Deutsche Bank Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ Here's what to watch in Friday's big October jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Don't hold your breath looking for that big of a decline, said Amy Glaser, senior vice president at global staffing firm Adecco. We're still seeing resilience in the market," Glaser said. Indeed, a potentially important trend has been the hiring of part-time workers in recent months. Strike impactClose to half a million American workers have gone on strike in recent months. While a number of those high-profile stoppages have been resolved, some of the activity will show up in the October jobs report.

Persons: you've, payrolls, Dow Jones, Amy Glaser, We're, Glaser, Jerome Powell, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Homebase Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, LPL, Employers, of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers

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